Rematches are not rare in the world of mixed martial arts. When a fighter sticks around the organization for a meaningful amount of time, then you can be assured they’ll be scheduled to fight an opponent they’ve already faced at one point or another. In addition to that, dominant champions will always have a rematch or two solely because of running out of fresh opponents to face in their weight class.
Whenever these rematches occur, just how do you bet them? In the event you bet on the fighter who won the first battle? Is the underdog the perfect play? That’s a question I wished to reply so that I brought up any data on the subject.
Since UFC 1, even when boxers have faced??each other to get a repeat bout, the winner of the preceding struggle has gone 71-43-3 from the rematch. This means the winner is victorious in 62??percent??of rematch??struggles.
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So as to utilize these amounts to our whole advantage as bettors, then we need to dive right into them a little bit deeper. Our database for fight odds goes back to 2012, therefore we’ll use from then until present day (August 9,??2019) as our sample size for favorites and underdogs.
Fighters who won the first fight walked??to the rematch because of betting favorite??36??days out of a total of 60??rematches since 2012, winning 28??of those battles (77.7??percent??win rate).
While that’s an extremely high success rate, the gain from these fights is not as big as you might??imagine given that the simple fact that a good part of the fighters??would’ve been favorites with a significant margin. $100 bettors would have walked away with a profit of $377.64??should they kindly wager on the fighter that won the preceding bout when they had been listed as the favorite??at the next battle all 36??times this occurred.
The most important (and rewarding ) statistic I discovered was that the fighter that won the initial bout??won 14??from 24??rematches if they had been listed as a underdog, providing $100 bettors a gain of $1,013.46.
In general, because 2012,??should you bet $100 in the fighter who won the very first fight when they competed in??a rematch, you would have gained a profit of $1,391.10.
History tends to repeat itself, and UFC rematches aren’t any exception to this rule.
Bettors are able to look in UFC 210 as an prime example of the as Daniel Cormier went into his rematch with Anthony Johnson as a +115 underdog even though winning their first fight. He won again in lopsided fashion via submission. Rose Namajunas was also an underdog at EVEN money heading into her UFC 223 rematch with Joanna Jedrzejczyk and went on to triumph in a convincing unanimous decision.
While the statistics show that betting on the fighter who won the first fight when they rematch an opponent is rewarding, the whole opposite can clearly be said about gambling on fighters in a rematch bout who dropped the first contest.
Favorites in rematches when they lost the first battle are 10-14, dropping $100 bettors that a total of $926.21.
Underdogs in rematches when they lost the first fight are 8-28, dropping $100 bettors that a total of $979.
To put these betting statistics into terms as straightforward as you can, you can feel safe betting on a fighter once they choose somebody whom they’ve already beaten. Whether they are recorded as favorites or maybe not, you will come to gain a gain long term executing this tactic.
Not many rematches are made equal. There are some fights that never should be scrapped a second??time, or even a third??period in some instances *ahem*BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar*ahem*.
To take these fights out of the equation, for curiosity’s sake??I wished to look at the amounts when shooting ONLY name struggles under consideration. For the struggle to fall under this group, the very first struggle and the rematch had??to have been to get the buckle.
The all-time record for the preceding winner heading right into a title fight rematch is 25-10.
Since 2012, previous winners in fights to the title are 17-3, netting $100 bettors that a profit of $725.20.
These numbers clearly do nothing but further the point that gambling on the previous winner heading right into a rematch is a smart play, so don’t hesitate to apply this approach moving forward in the event that you want to win some cash.
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