The NFL is regarded as one of the most difficult sports leagues on earth to disability and with great reason. Each week, there is numerous examples of stakes that look like absolute locks, but for whatever reason, they fall flat and suck money out bettor’s bankrolls from the process.
Early in my career covering the sports gaming landscape, it became amazingly obvious that there’s no such thing as a lock especially when it concerns the NFL. If you dig deep enough, but there is a handful of places in the NFL that are extremely reliable over the years.
ThankfullyI have access to Decades Value Of Data and discovered a few extremely profitable betting situations that may give us a little head start at the 2019 NFL season.
Can some of them fall flat? Yes. Will some be ongoing? Absolutely. Will the betting nerds of the net say this report is useless because trends provide no predictive value? Now that right there is??a lock!
Whether you buy into trends or not, these are all spots that continue to cover outside, so let’s dive in and explore if there’s logic to back up these:
Call it a Super Bowl hangover in case you would like, however this awful record for Super Bowl champions in Week 1 of the subsequent season is probably the result of these simply being overvalued based on their prior year’s result. There is a whole great deal of turnover at the NFL from season-to-season and many early season spreads are taking a year’s info into consideration.
This is ordinarily a premier matchup for its opening week of this season using the Super Bowl loser paired up with an adequate opponent, and in these 19 games, the Super Bowl failure was just an underdog four times. So, yeah, you get the stage, the Super Bowl runner-up is often overrated early in the year based on their reputation from the year earlier.
When you are able to bet it: In Week 1 of this season… or to be more unique, you can fade the Rams Who Are At -3 In Carolina.
Virtually the entirety of this awesome streak in primetime was around Pete Carroll’s watch while Russell Wilson was under center for a large chunk of these matches. We can’t correctly measure inspiration, but it’s entirely possible that these are the type of games that the longtime head coach/QB combo”get up” for. The fact that the Seahawks are among their most consistent teams??during this past decade also helps.
As for Wilson”getting up”?? for playing under the bright lights in primetime, consider that his career QB rating at nighttime is 7.3 points higher than his normally late-afternoon begins. He also includes a much better completion percentage, a greater touchdown-to-interception ratio, and above all, a much better win percentage (81.4percent versus 65%) during the night vs the late afternoon.
Here’s a breakdown of Seattle in night games in a few particular situations:
– Night games at home: 15-3-2 ATS since November 2017
– Nighttime matches as an underdog: 11-2 ATS since December 2006
– Nighttime games in December: 10-0 ATS because December 2011
– Nighttime games vs teams with winning records: 11-3 ATS since December 2006
When you can bet it: Week 5 TNF hosting the??Rams, Week 10 MNF at San Francisco, Week 12 SNF at Philly, Week 13 MNF hosting Minnesota, Week 14 SNF in LA Rams
What an embarrassment for Bills Mafia. Some may argue that this tendency does not matter since it extends into well prior to the Brady-Belichick era, but it is actually a better amount if you tighten it to start in 2000 when Belichick became the Patriots’ head coach, since they have gone 14-4-1 ATS in this period.
So, what gives? Is this only due to the Patriots’ historic domination of the team and the Bills’ constant turnover at heart coach and QB making them among the league’s most elite skip fires? Largely, yes.
Specific the Belichick-era, the Patriots have a ridiculous 12 double-digit victories in Buffalo, but they’ve only been a double-digit popular in three of the 19 games. They have been regularly undervalued and their league-best 60.8% ATS covering percent throughout the last ten years is proof of that.?? However, here’s what they have a winning ATS listing across heaps of different areas, which is nuts considering they’re the most elite dynasty in football history.
It was actually a struggle to pick only one situation in this article to highlight New England. Check out the other popular spots for the Patriots in the bottom of the article.
When to wager it: Sunday, September 29 (Week 4)
This was an especially major money maker throughout the 2018 season when the home team moved 10-3-2 ATS on Thursday nights. I believe it’s incredibly clear why the home team has such an edge on Thursday nights, because the road team is traveling to a short week, placing them in an uncomfortable position with less time to prepare while recovering in the last week in a hotel.
Extending this trend even further, the home team moved 71-53-6 ATS (57.3percent ) on TNF during the previous 10 decades, so this has a long history of being a profitable place. When in doubt on Thursday nights, then consider the house team.
When to bet it: I should not need to tell you this
At first look, this sounds more coincidental than anything else, however, Dallas has played considerably otherwise offensively on the road the previous four seasons. In 3 of the four Decades, there’s a Fairly Major disparity within their home/away scoring averages:
– 2018: 7 fewer things averaged in street games
– 2016: 5.8 fewer points averaged in street games
– 2015: 3.9 fewer points averaged in road games
We also have a similar pattern on defense with the group doing better on this side of the ball out of Dallas in 3 of the last four seasons:
– 2017: 6 fewer points allowed on the road
– 2016: 2.8 fewer points permitted on the road
– 2015: 10 fewer things allowed on the road
Going back to when this trend begins on September 20, 2015, we’ve seen Cowboys’ home matches possess a mean combined score of 46.10, while the average combined score in their street games falls significantly to 38.84.
Is the transition in the turf in Jerry’s Earth to other playing surfaces the difference maker here? It seems to be an obvious motive, but perhaps their offensive groundwork for street games isn’t on par with their prep for home games.
In any event, keep an eye on their street totals throughout this season. Each matchup differs, but when their O/U amount for street games is on par with their averages at house matches, I would strongly lean with this trend continuing.
It is no coincidence that this record contrasts with the very first period of Andy Reid’s tenure as head coach of the Chiefs. He’s got a reputation as a extraordinary game planner and superior coaches have a tendency to understand teams in their branch very well.
The interesting thing about these games is the three ATS loses all came versus the Raiders, although KC is a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games in Denver and San Diego/Los Angeles.
1 concern??this year is that this is the best Chiefs team coming into a season in the Andy Reid-era, so they might face higher than regular spreads, at least early in this season.
Short time or recovering from a Dark Friday fistfight in WalMart and no time to handicap the NFL Thanksgiving matches? Just take the favorites then and you’re most likely to walk away with a gain. Including the past two seasons when the preferred covered the spread in each of six games, faves are on an absolute tear on Thanksgiving in 31-11 ATS since 2005. And this tendency is not only restricted to the 2000s as favorites covering on Thanksgiving is a longstanding tradition as they’ve gone 53-29 ATS (64.5%) as 1984.
You would think dwelling teams would have a significant advantage here, as laid out in the TNF trend above, but house teams have been preferred in only more than half of the matches since 2005, and went 18-23 ATS.
In addition, these games are interchangeable with ass-kickings, similar to the ones that we see WalMart on Black Friday, as 32 of??51 games as 2000 were decided by double-digits.
This year’s Thanksgiving games include that the Bears at Detroit, the Cowboys hosting that the Greens as well as the Saints seeing Atlanta.
Some groups are slow starters and require a couple of weeks to begin along with the Saints are at the peak of the list of early-season underperformers.
In 2018, we saw them choke in Week 1 and lose into the Bucs as a 10-point favored in the home. The following week, in a different home game, they barely snuck from the Hugh Jackson and Tyrod Taylor-led Browns, winning by three as a 9.5-point favourite. They then proceeded to pay the spread in nine consecutive games after the tough start.
In 2017, we saw them fail to cover in the initial fourteen days, then move to pay the spread six of their next seven games. In 2016they divide the initial two, then covered five of their next six. In 2015, they did not pay in their first two games, then coated in four of the next five.
The main point is that Sean Peyton has done a poor job in getting off to a good start and Drew Brees hasn’t been eloquent ancient in seasons, recognized by his own career September QB rating of 94.7 that is his smallest of monthly.
When to bet it: With the Saints favorite by a touchdown in Week 1 MNF Vs The Texans, along with a Week two rematch of last year’s NFC Title game in which bettors are certain to play-up the payback angle, these can be prime places to once again fade New Orleans in early season games.
Pittsburgh was playing to weaker??competition for almost two decades and has been particularly awful in this place recently, going 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points because the onset of the 2017 season. Most importantly, they have been atrocious as a double-digit street favorite in this period, moving 1-10 ATS.
Mike Tomlin took over as Steelers head coach in 2007 so many of this inefficiency as a huge favorite is on his view. They’ve been an outright winner in nearly all of these matches, going 22-5 under Tomlin, but they definitely underestimate poorer competitors, making them a great fade as a major favorite.
Pittsburgh won’t have as many chances as a double-digit favorite this year, particularly now that the Browns are more competitive — they’ve been a double-digit favorite eight times vs the Browns in Tomlin’s tenure as head coach but they could find themselves like a enormous favorite in Season 4 at home to the Bengals and hosting the Dolphins in Week 8.
Thus, besides normally sucking the past decade, yet another thing these teams have in common is playing with at a very different climate. It is probably the most apparent point to handicap, with warm weather clubs playing outside of their comfort zones in the colder weather months, however it seems as if oddsmakers are not accounting enough for it.
Miami is the most extreme case out of those three Florida teams within this spot because of playing in a branch with all the teams that are strongly influenced by winter ailments. Going all the way back to 1992, they are just 3-10 ATS in New England in December and January games. Since 1990, they’re 4-9-1 ATS at Buffalo in these months, while they’ve managed to move 4-3 ATS in the Jets since 1996.
There is a bit of grey area here because I did not look at climate conditions to every one of the groups in these matches, but warm-weather city clubs that play outside are normally a dreadful stake when playing in cold weather.
Since 2014, there’s been 82 games played with cold temperatures below 32??F (0?? C). Nineteen of those games involved warm-weather city teams that perform outside (Jacksonville, Miami, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Tampa Bay, Oakland and San Francisco) and they went 6-13 ATS.
Here is just another piece of reputable betting spots Through the Years:
– Patriots: 35-14??ATS??at home over their last 49 matches
– Patriots: 16-5-1 ATS following a loss since October 13, 2013
– Patriots: 11-4-2 in divisional home games since October 2013
– Raiders: 4-21 SU in final 25 games with 1 PM ET begin times
– Colts: 1-10 ATS in last their 11 Week 1 matches
– Browns: 2-19 SU in their last 21 in Pittsburgh
– Saints vs Bucs: UNDER at 15 of last 21 matchups
– Lions vs Vikings: UNDER at 16 of past 22 matchups
– Seahawks: 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs 49ers
– Panthers: 19-5-1 ATS following a road loss
– London Games: Favorite is 15-9 ATS
– Texans: 6-18-1 ATS at nighttime games because 2012
– Redskins: 5-16 ATS at nighttime matches because 2013
– Broncos: 75-20-2 SU at home in September because 1970
– Titans:??7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 divisional road games
For more information like this each week during the NFL season, Follow Me About Twitter. Good luck this season, and as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAER!