The New Orleans Saints are the NFL pick for Sundays game against the Jacksonville Jaguars — and for good reason.
Its official: Were at the ranch here about the Gardner Minshew bandwagon. The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) happen to be profitable after five near-complete games from their backup quarterback, after the broken collarbone Nick Foles suffered early on through their season opener. Minshewmania is runnin wild~!
But again, Teddy Bridgewater. The New Orleans Saints (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) have won three consecutive SU and ATS since their backup QB took over for Drew Brees, whos out indefinitely with a broken thumb. And with their superior protection and special teams, it appears like the Saints would be the right NFL pick as 1.5-point street dogs for Sundays competition (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS).
To support our theory we turn into our preferred sources for non-proprietary (i.e. free) computer projections:
FiveThirtyEight: New Orleans –3.5
Jeff Sagarin: New Orleans –3.93, 46.39 complete
That is pretty encouraging. A caveat, however : old-school gambling principles are the better option. Indeed, the consensus accounts at press time reveal 63 percent of bettors a documented team, on the Saints, while 51 percent of the amount wagered is about Jacksonville. This match was a pickem in the open, by the way.
We are not scurred. A bet given the drop-off between Bridgewater and Brees in performance level, and could still be proper in the face of the gambling patterns. It does not seem to be that big of a drop-off. The efficiency numbers at Football Outsiders of bridgewater are marginally above league average. Sample sizes matter, as it turns out.
The numbers of minshew have been better, mind you. The mustachioed one rankings No. 8 overall in passing DVOA throughout Week 5, one step ahead of the almighty (and likewise hirsute) Aaron Rodgers. But Jacksonvilles defense was poor on the floor, where they position dead-last in efficiency. Losing Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey to a demand isnt helping their pass defense.
The Saints have not played defense this year, but theyve out-performed that the Jags. Likewise, while the two groups have excelled on special teams, New Orleans has been much better; while Deonte Harris has taken one punt go back Will Lutz is 11-of-12 on field goals and 10-of-11 on points.
There may be some room to choose theover for this matchup in the posted total of 44down from 45 when the NFL odds initially hit the board. It is supposed to become a hot day in Jacksonville, although the backup QBs have outperformed expectations also neither groups defense was stellar this year. But wewill the sphere be with you — andll stick at their price here with all the Saints.
Free NFL Pick: Saints +1.5 (–105) at 5Dimes
Jasons 2019 NFL picks 3-3 ATS, 3-2 Totals