The expert prediction data from GoldDerby.com is probably the closest thing we’ve got to monitoring”sharp” action for award shows. While they do not always nail the winner (who does?) , their accuracy was in the 66-92% range since 2011. The secret is that the pros have been dead on as far as the movies for which they do not vote, which allows us to narrow down every category to just the contenders with accurate shots of winning.
The percentage of the pro vote a nominee gets in a specific category can be treated as its”true” likelihood, which may subsequently be compared to actual gaming chances for that class to determine which stakes offer the maximum value.
Here is a table comparing a candidate’s real probability of winning according to the exports together with the probability implied from the betting odds for various classes, sorted by value.
Be sure to check back regularly up until 8 p.m. lock, as I will be updating if chances shift and new values emerge.
Read more: sportscoverage.net/moplay/