The Oregon Ducks (4-1) are hanging on by a thread for their College Football Playoff expects.
After dominating Stanford within their Pac-12 debut last week, then the Ducks welcome that the Cal Golden Bears (4-1) to the Autzen Zoo this Saturday (8:00 EST on FOX). In three prior seasons, Oregon had an efficient Justin Herbert in QB against the Bears and has mastered the ground game.
Theyve outscored Cal and have won nine of last 10 general against them. As favorites, the Ducks come in Using a individuality and, based on MyBookie.
Cal dropped their starting QB Chase Garbers (8 TDs-2 INT, 148.1 evaluation ) for the near future following a shoulder injury a week. The Bears have covered in their last five road games.
However, are their 10th-ranked pass shield be sufficient to pay against the Ducks that are FEI? With Oregon QB Justin Herbert flexing a TD-to-INT ratio that is 14-0, they will find.
Oregon will have a few big additions to their receiving corps that weekend, even together with Mycah Pittman (right shoulder) and Brenden Schooler (right foot) coming from injury. This may add a game that is ranked 44th in the FBS and essential thickness.
Herbert stays away from mistakes in the QB position, and it will be crucial versus a Cal team the greatest of whose unit would be the secondary. It has allowed the Bears to hold their opponents less than their particular PPG. A team like Miss set up 31 points in Alabama, but just 20 at home.
The 24 points last week, given in a loss to Arizona State of cal would be the second-most they have given up in an entire calendar year. It was the secondary which served for the catalyst into their win over Washington this season.
Though they have only given up 18.6 PPG and have the 6th-best effectiveness against large plays, their functionality on the street is even more striking. Dating back to the start of last season, coach Justin Wilcoxs group enables all of 17.3 PPG since the outside team.
The one issue is, Oregon has been the only staff to post 40 points (42) around Cal in this time period. Herbert, directing the nation offense on downs, is the largest reason for it.
However, induce Herbert to place most the pressure on himself and the run game has not started to churn from FBS teams. He is working with the offensive line that hasnt done up to snuff Although he can clearly hand it. They came in as the ideal unit at the Pac, but position 113th in competitors rate of success and 101st in normal sack speed.
It could open opportunities for a Cal team up with nine players contributing to sacks. Three of these players (Kuony Deng, Luc Bequette, along with Cameron Goode) possess 2.5 sacks or longer.
Cal had a steady hand in QB with Garbers, who threw eight TDs and kept a passer rating. However he was not a danger that is lively at QB. Thus dont anticipate a group ranked 118th in S&P+ crime to get worse.
Garbers will be replaced by devon Modster. He had a run at UCLA before moving to Cal. He is not but a half-step supporting Garbers concerning talent but had a tough go of his brief bit of playing with time (6 for 15) this season.
The Bears have been 126th in 112th explosive plays . Dont anticipate perimeter talent or a strong ground game to bond Modster out. A 100th-ranked scoring offense isnt likely to change overnight, and certainly not against the powerful late-down pass rush (ranked 24th) of the Ducks.
Oregon still has a job to do after giving up healthy chunks of yards on 1st down, but they possess the athletes around to swarm the Bears.
As Oregons d-line ranks 111th, cal could have had an edge in conditions. However, the Bears o-line (101st) is nearly as putrid in this field since they are.
They scored at Washington with the ability to reach the quarterback and the talent difference, do not anticipate Cal to get within the 20 things.
The over/under of this game currently sits in 46 points, which looks low. But Oregon wentunder in a few of its past seven years, and Cal is under in nine of 10.
That leaves a space for Oregon to go up by more or 18 on Cal. Yes, the Bears have next-to-know firepower. However they beat against and also a scoring D. that is top-25 and a Washington team that is well-coached together
This group, with the schemes of Wilcox, can withstand the onslaught from some other Pac-12 opponent. They have not given up over 24 points in a road game.
Oregon may have the 7th-best grading defense. Nevertheless, it is a stat the last few weeks, compiled by enjoying competitions that are sorry. This match wont quite function as 7-6 Redbox Bowl game Oregon last year won. Nonetheless, it is a game which will remain shut from being on the area until the shield of the Cal traces down .
Herbert gets the accuracy to earn a throw While this occurs. It wont come until late providing Cal the cover.
Prediction: Oregon (21) — California (10)