This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card at Atlanta. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a lot of money from this week and that I can not wait to chase these big prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at the $30k prize, and then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the first thing I did when wages were published. I put both of these fighters in my cash lineup and I began building out there. I anticipate this to be one of the best fights of all time and that I believe we get ~200 total DK points from this fight, plus the guaranteed win. I am ok with taking the loss when I can guarantee myself over 100 points with the stack, but I think 150 is a safe projection for this fight and if we can lock up 3 additional wins we ought to win the vast majority of our money games. As I always say, we don’t want 6 wins for money games so there is really no need to chase it. Only lock in a safe lineup that you think will score more than 400 total points and you should win more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP drama of this week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP drama of the week because he’s the definition of bust or boom. He loses or scores more than 100 DK points. That’s what we want in GPPs. This isn’t a confident choice in him winning it is just a shot at his ceiling which is what we search for in the big GPPs where we’re trying to win the best $30k prize. Krylov has completed all 24 of his own wins and he has only seen the 3rd round once in his profession. This is a great struggle to target on both sides, but I am taking Krylov for the win and that I will have a fantastic amount of exposure to this weekend.
Underdog play of the week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I had to place Poirier here. I adore his floor and I believe he is a live underdog. But IF he wins, he will 100 percent wind up on the 1st place lineup at his 7.1k price-tag. He is likely to score over 100 DK points when he is able to find a success here and that’s what we’re chasing in GPPs. Even if you think Max is going to dominate Poirier I believe that you should have at least 1 hedge lineup utilizing Poirier, which is an all-in struggle for me. Every lineup I build will begin with Dustin or Max and I will go on out there. Load up on this battle and make sure you find some Poirier exposure.
Fade of this week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was hard to select a fade of the week this week because I think you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to choose a popular though and I think the favored with among those reduced ceilings is Salmon. I’m picking him to win but he won’t be going for any takedowns and if he doesn’t get a finish he probably doesn’t pay off his $8.6k price tag. I need at least 10x (86-points) when I am rostering someone and I really don’t see him getting that unless he receives a knockout. Taha is tough so I really don’t observe the knockout occurring. I think Salmon does make a unanimous decision win here but it likely scores in the 70’s and that won’t win us the large $30k. That’s why he’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 66-41 to get +220.23u (+$22,023) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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